Sunday, February 23, 1941

ARE THE GERMANS IN BULGARIA? The New York Times’ C.L. Sulzberger says no, the stories about Nazi troops crossing the Danube River boundary line are "unfounded" and "premature." But the Reuters news agency reports from Belgrade that "German troops have been crossing the Danube into Bulgaria at the Bulgarian town of Ruse since 4 p.m....Friday." Also, Leon Kay of United Press reports that German marching troops and "heavily-loaded lorries" are said to have entered Bulgaria at Ruschuk, Mikopoi, and Vidin. And Sam Brewer writes in the Chicago Tribune that German engineer units have "pushed 60 miles into Bulgaria." I haven’t heard anything on the radio this morning to confirm or deny these stories, but there is one report that German officers in civilian clothes have established themselves in the capital, Sofia (and have been treated to student anti-Nazi demonstrations). There’s also a story that brand-new road signs -- in German -- have shown up on Bulgarian highways leading from the Rumanian border. Yet, there’s still no consensus that the Germans have arrived.

Is there any doubt they will? Unless this is all an extremely elaborate feint, it’s conceivable that the Germans would, this time at least, do what they have baldly telegraphed the world they are going to do -- drive through Bulgaria and into northeastern Greece. There’s a chance they’ll get a hot reception, if a U.P. report is accurate that the British have fortified the Greek island of Lemnos in the upper Aegean. This is a highly strategic point in the region, equidistant from the port of Salonika and the Dardanelles straits. According to the Tribune, a Turkish radio report said British forces in North Africa are holding large forces in North Africa in readiness "for an instant call to Greece." A year ago, the British were too little, too late in Norway -- this time I have a feeling it’ll be a much more even fight. It could even result in a stable Balkan front, similar to that which we saw in the World War.

HE WHO HESITATES... British author and statesman Harold J. Laski wrote in his syndicated column yesterday that Hitler is having a highly atypical attack of indecision --

"One can see the shape of a German spring offensive taking its determined form....Is it to be the long expected invasion of Britain? Is it to be an attack on the Middle East? Spain, to show its gratitude for past favors, by cooperating in an attack on Gibraltar? Is Japan to launch an attack which tests all of America to defend its interests in the Far East? Has France been pulled over to the border line of decisive subjection to the Axis? Will Turkey fight? Is the Soviet Union so fearful of a German attack that it will continue to stand aloof whatever the threat of a German advance to the Black Sea may imply? My guess...is that none of these and no combination of them at the moment is more certain than another. For the first time since the defeat of Poland, Hitler is uncertain of his next move. Axis propaganda is working overtime to find out, if it can, the weak point in the British armor. So much in the last six or seven months has proved totally unexpected that Hitler waits on the ‘feel’ of events for one of those intuitions of his which looses his barbaric savagery in a new quarter....Neutral observers who have recently been in Germany told me of conversations with sober, middle class Germans to whom now any postponement of rapid victory is the equivalent of certain defeat. They ask themselves why the Fuehrer hesitates. They begin to wonder if he is so certain of his direction. Something spectacular and determined he will no doubt attempt. The chance of a negotiated peace has disappeared. He must ruin or be ruined. But he is torn between the possibilities."

Professor Laski hastily warns that no one should underestimate the danger of a Hitler triumph ("His gambler’s chance of victory...is real and will last at least until American aid to Britain has made the sea lanes safe and has given us something approaching parity in the air."). But there does seem to be something lackadaisical about the German war machine all of a sudden – for instance, making such a big build-up about a tactical move through Bulgaria that will almost surely bring German troops into Greece, invading through the back door. It would be an offensive, yes, but limited in scope and defensive in purpose. Maybe you could say it’s still likely the Nazis will launch a "spectacular" attack on Britain this spring. Still, I’m starting to wonder if -- for whatever reason -- Hitler has suddenly opted for a careful and essentially defensive strategy of consolidation.