Tuesday, February 11, 1941

JAPAN’S THREAT TO THE PHILIPPINES. A long article in this week’s Time magazine goes into the chilling possibility of a Japanese attack on the Philippines, the U.S.’s ability to counter it, and just why such an attack, launched sooner rather than later, might well fit into Japan’s overall strategy for dominating East Asia --

"The Philippines’ danger is that the islands are a threat to Japan’s flank if she moves on The Netherlands Indies. To prepare for such a move, the Japanese may well make a sudden assault on the islands. The archipelago’s first line of defense would be Admiral Thomas John Hart’s thin Asiatic fleet (two cruisers, 13 destroyers, 12 submarines, as of June 1940). In a prolonged attack the Japanese would also have to meet the full might of the Pacific Fleet, now based on Honolulu. But what worries Filipinos is the problem of immediate defense against an invasion. Although there are only 10,000 U.S. regulars stationed in the islands (mostly in Luzon), U.S. Army men say: The Philippines can be defended....The core of this defense sector is Luzon. For on Luzon is not only the Philippines’ capital, but their only Navy Yard (at Cavite), their only naval repair station (Olongapo), most of their fortifications and military airdromes. So long as Manila is in U.S. hands, no Japanese drive to the south could safely by-pass the islands. Hence the U.S. Army has centered its defenses around Manila. Here the defenders of the Philippines would make their last stand against an invasion. Most officers think they could hold on until help came from Honolulu."

The Philippines aren’t scheduled to become independent of the U.S. until 1946, but Filipino officials aren’t waiting until then to create a national military, which could represent the joker in the deck -- "Back of the primary defenses stands a newer and more questionable one: the Filipino army. Preparing for independence, the Commonwealth hired (reputedly at $50,000 a year)a crack professional soldier to raise and train an army. The job went to General Douglas MacArthur, one-time Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army and son of an Army general officer who once bossed the Philippines as military governor. The result of Philippine Field Marshall MacArthur’s four years of hard work is still a tactical question mark. The Filipino army consists of 20,000 regular troops and 130,000 reservists....The army is still short of modern equipment, a shortage that is dependent, like the rest of the U.S. war effort, on production in the U.S. Question mark though it is, the Philippine native army may well be the deciding factor, if invasion should come to the islands."

CHURCHILL WARNS THAT BULGARIA’S NEXT. The Prime Minister’s first radio speech in more than five months covered a lot of territory, most prominently the Balkans. The British now believe that some of Hitler’s vast army is headed southeast, and are sounding off about it -- according to Churchill, "a considerable German army" in Rumania has begun moving into Bulgaria, "with what we must suppose is the acquiescence of the Bulgarian government." Surely more than one listener got a deja vu feeling listing to the Prime Minister urge the Bulgarians to resist Nazi encroachments, since it was so similar to the message he gave the Netherlands and Belgium, about this time a year ago, warning that Hitler would not leave them alone. The Dutch and Belgians ignored Churchill’s words and, alas, the Bulgarians seem intent on doing so too. According to an Associated Press story yesterday, the Bulgarian government’s official reply to Churchill amounts to saying, "What Germans?" Only "a few officers and men" from the Reich are in their country, say Bulgarian officials, and that’s normal -- Germany has supplied Bulgaria with all of its military training and weapons.

But the A.P. also cites "usually reliable" sources in Sofia as saying that "a special soviet envoy had arrived...to discuss the question of passage of German troops thru Bulgaria." And the British are sure enough of their information that they’ve publicly warned the Bulgarians that "military objectives in that nation will be subject to bombardment" if the Germans come in, says another A.P. report printed Sunday. Passage through Bulgaria would allow German troops to drive toward the Greek port of Salonika, outflanking the Greek troops who’ve been battering Mussolini’s forces farther west. Yesterday’s Chicago Tribune has a page-one dispatch reporting that Britain’s dramatic capture of Bengazi has caught the Nazis off-guard, "giving rise to the fear British troops may be available to counter Nazi Balkan invasion plans sooner than they expected." A German ultimatum demanding right of passage through Bulgaria for a Nazi attack on Greece might come "within a few days," the Tribune reports.

Lest anyone feel relieved that a Nazi move into the Balkans makes an invasion of Britain less imminent, there’s a school of thought right now that argues it might actually herald a coming attack on the British Isles. An article in this week’s Time magazine describes a possible Hitler strategy of "diversion before invasion." British experts, Time says, "suspect that a southern campaign would be a sure indication of an imminent attempt at invasion."

"GIVE US THE TOOLS." Another great moment of Churhillian rhetoric, and an inspiring pledge to Americans, from the Washington Post’s transcription --

"The other day President Roosevelt gave his opponent in the late Presidential election a letter of introduction to me, and in it he wrote out a verse in his own handwriting from Longfellow which he said, ‘Applies to you people as it does us.’ Here is the verse: ‘Sail on, O ship of state; sail on, O Union strong and great. Humanity with all its fears, with all its hopes of future years, is hanging breathless on thy fate.’ What is the answer that I shall give in your name to this great man, this thrice-chosen head of a Nation of 130,000,000? Here is the answer which I will give to President Roosevelt: Put your confidence in us. Give us your faith and your blessing, and under Providence all will be well. We shall not fail or falter; we shall not weaken or tire. Neither the sudden shock of battle nor the long-drawn trials of vigilance and exertion will wear us out. Give us the tools and we will finish the job."