JAPAN’S TOUGH NEW CABINET. If Japan-watchers are looking for any sign of hope in the fall of Prince Konoye’s cabinet, they can give up for now. There is none, not that the press mavens can see, anyway. The latest word from the Associated Press is that the new premier, Gen. Eiki Tojo, has publicly pledged "settlement of the China affair and establishment of a Japanese order in East Asia by quick action, not words, plus continued alignment with the Axis." Echoing his Fascist counterparts in Europe, the general prescribes "speedy action and iron will" as a cure for the Empire’s ills. His cabinet is predominantly military, with three posts reserved for himself -- premier, war minister, and home minister. (The Konoye cabinet had ten civilians and seven military men.)
While the New York Times and the Washington Post emphasize these facts, naturally the Chicago Tribune harps on Britain’s reaction to them. London is portrayed, of course, as prodding the U.S. to get into the war. Larry Rue’s story in the Tribune quotes a Daily Mail editorial -- "The time for decisive American action is at hand" in the Pacific. The News Chronicle advocates an American declaration of war if Tokyo engages in any more aggression in the Far East, but adds that "the resulting struggle probably would be short and sharp -- a single fleet engagement would decide the issue." Buried at the bottom of the Tribune article is a single sentence from the Daily Telegraph, which takes a more cautious approach. The Japanese cabinet crisis "does not necessarily mean war tomorrow," and hasty conclusions should be avoided.
But what the Tojo cabinet actually does is what’s important, not what London says the Japanese might do. And while the talks in Washington continue, there’s no indication General Tojo and his men have much of a regard for them.
NAZI SUCCESS CAUSES CHANGE IN TOKYO? Barnet Nover, in his Friday Washington Post column, ties the shift in Japan’s foreign policy to the success thus far of the German offensive on Moscow --
"The German drive has strengthened the hand of the Japanese extremists. They are eager to get going, believing that the present is a heaven-sent opportunity to settle accounts with Russia. But their first victory, if victory is theirs, is not likely to be acquired in either in Siberia or Thailand or any other area they hope to take over, but in Japan itself. Their first victory must be won over the realists who, believing as the extremists themselves do, in Japan’s ‘divine mission’ to be ruler of all of east Asia, nevertheless feel that this is no time for Japan to act. The composition of the next Japanese cabinet will tell how far these extremists will have their way. A showdown nears in the Far East."
From what we’ve heard since Mr. Nover wrote these words, it appears the extremists will have quite a lot of leeway.
THE RUSSIANS MOVE THEIR CAPITAL EASTWARD. The Red Army claims to be holding the line in front of Moscow, but the Soviet government’s actions paint a far different picture. Several unofficial reports now say the Russians have moved their government out of Moscow and have set up shop in Kazan, some 450 miles eastward. A Time magazine article from last July mentioned Kazan as a potential Soviet capital if Moscow were in jeopardy, and identified the city as the capital of the Tatar government in medieval times. The U.S. embassy got the jump on the Soviets, moving all but a skeleton crew of embassy personnel eastward to Kazan back in the summer.
The BBC says Stalin is still in Moscow, though no one expects the Russians would make some sort of grand announcement if he wasn’t.
IF JAPAN JUMPS INTO THE WAR. Walter Lippmann writes in his New York Herald Tribune column just how dangerous a Japanese attack could be to U.S. and British interests --
"Japan is teetering on the edge of a decision which, if taken, will immediately have the gravest consequences for the United States. A Japanese attack on Siberia, especially if the Russians are unable to hold a defensive line at the European end of the trans-Siberian railroad will immediately make Alaska and the North Pacific as exposed an area as is the Atlantic from North America to Greenland, Iceland, and the British Isles. Perhaps it will be more exposed. For the Japanese navy is much stronger than the German navy. A Japanese attack in the south via Indo-China and Thailand in order to isolate China and surround Singapore would be equally serious. For the region of the South Pacific is of the highest strategic importance, both economically and in a military sense. If it falls to Japan, she will have conquered the resources for an almost unlimited expansion of her armed power, and we shall become dependent on Japan for certain indispensable supplies. Moreover if the Japanese get to Singapore, there will be little to stop them beyond that. They can go to the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea, the Mediterranean, the Atlantic -- the German, Italian, and Japanese navies will be able to join hands and act together."
Mr. Lippmann notes that, on the other hand, Japan cannot realize such gains "without a full-dress war with Great Britain and the United States," and that "the sober Japanese know quite well that if they start such a war, they will almost certainly be defeated." Thus Tokyo would be dependent on coordinated action with Hitler, and it is "in the highest degree probable" that something like this is being planned. We are moving, in the columnist’s words, toward "one of the great climaxes of the world struggle."
