Tuesday, January 14, 1941

IS HITLER ABOUT TO MAKE HIS MOVE? The New Republic’s editors believe that zero hour is nearly here --

"Germany has sent great armies in all directions. Everything is ready for invasion of Britain. Many divisions and fighting planes have gone into Italy. A huge army is in Rumania on the Bulgarian border; Wednesday the 8th, as we write, is said to be Der Tag for a peaceful conquest of Soviet Russia’s ally, preparatory to a move against Greece or Turkey. Former dispatches have told of German concentrations in the northeast and in Norway. Some say the Soviet Union is about to be attacked, or about to resist further Balkan penetration by Hitler. Some say Turkey will fight if Bulgaria is absorbed by the Axis. Some say Hitler is about to rescue Mussolini from the stunning series of British successes in Egypt and Libya, which, if not reversed, bid fair to menace Italy herself, release British naval forces for the Atlantic, and become the turning point in the war. And others have said that Hitler, with the enforced connivance of Vichy, will counter with an attack through Spain on Gibraltar."

The editors don’t pick which alternative is most likely, though they discount the chances of any big push in the Balkans. Generally the current scare-of-the-week appears to be focused on Bulgaria, although Monday’s New York Times reflects some skepticism about these latest rumors "that once more Chancellor Hitler has set a ‘deadline’, expiring at noon tomorrow, for Bulgarian permission for German troops to cross that country to go to the aid of Italy in Albania." The Turks are saying they will declare war if German troops cross the Rumanian border into Bulgaria. On the other hand, Bulgaria offers Hitler’s best route to pour Nazi forces into Albania and Greece – and it’s becoming increasingly evident that Hitler must do something fast to shore up Mussolini before he can gamble on an invasion of Britain. The surprising thing to me is that the Germans have waited this long to come to Italy’s rescue. It’s increasingly obvious, in the wake of the British seizure of Bardia and the shelling of Tobruk, that the Duce’s armies are on the ropes.

WILLKIE’S STATESMANSHIP. Wendell Willkie’s endorsement of the "all out" Aid-to-Britain bill includes two important caveats -- (1) President Roosevelt’s emergency authority should be "for a fixed term, not too far in the future," and that Congress should not be "harried" to approve the bill without thoughtful debate and amendment. Further, Mr. Willkie correctly perceives that Congress’s "fundamental power to declare war" must not be compromised by the bill’s grant of sweeping presidential powers. His 1,200-word statement reprinted in many of today’s papers is a model of prudence and common sense -- he understands better than the Administration does that the need for swift action doesn’t require us to take reckless action. There are other hopeful signs that moderation will carry the day. According to Coleman B. Jones in Monday’s New York Herald Tribune, the President’s own supporters now believe the "lend-lease" bill "could be put through Congress with little delay, though probably with a number of amendments to modify the sweeping ‘blank check’ scope of the draft presented to the Senate and House on Friday." This implicit willingness to accept amendments, and the friendly reception Willkie’s message reportedly received from Hyde Park, are promising developments.

Contrast Mr. Willkie’s statesmanship with some of the ugly rhetoric coming from those the isolationist camp, many of whom sang his praises only a short time ago. It’s one thing to merely allege the President has a "war policy," as Alf Landon does, and another entirely to engage in the plug-ugly rhetoric of Senator Wheeler’s radio talk Sunday night ("This bill is the New Deal’s Triple A foreign policy -- plow under every fourth American boy."). Thomas Dewey claims, outlandishly, that the bill would "abolish Congress." The Chicago Tribune’s "news" stories routinely refer to the President’s "war dictatorship bill," as if Republicans are going to snatched up and thrown into camps upon passage. At least Chesly Manly’s story in Monday’s Tribune acknowledges, several paragraphs in, that the bill’s probably going to pass and that there’s serious discussion about amendments -- a prohibition on giving away arms, a prohibition on transfer of current Army and Navy property, a specification of the nations eligible for "lend-lease" aid, and the time provision. Fine. Let’s cut the name-calling and do what Mr. Willkie advises -- craft a bill that gives the President the powers he needs to get us through the crisis, but reins in the wilder New Deal impulses to operate under arbitrary authority.

IS THE TIDE RUNNING AGAINST THE AXIS? Even through Axis threats still beckon, G.E.R. Gedye writes from Istanbul in Sunday’s New York Times that trained eyes perceive that the trend is running against Hitler and his allies right at the moment --

"As observers here see it, the Axis is badly out of symmetry. At the Berlin end there is little motion and the rapid revolution of past Blitzkrieg days has been slowed up by the lagging battle of Britain. Tokyo, noticing the firmness of President Roosevelt’s declaration, had prudently refrained from revolving at all; the Rome end is revolving backward with increasing rapidity, as Sidi Barrani is followed by Solum, Bardia and Tobruk. With Italy flung out of Greece and only clinging to Africa when he would -- in the Turkish view, at least -- be wiser to get back home to face a pending German occupation, and with the tremendous moral reinforcement (presaging others of a more material nature) afforded by Mr. Roosevelt’s challenging speeches, the Axis has lost ground in the past few weeks."

The Turks seem a little too hopeful. A year ago people were talking about the "lagging" war in France until German troops and tanks charged across the Somme. As welcome as Italian defeats are, they do nothing to weaken Hitler’s power to cross the Channel. On the other hand, Mr. Gedye cautions that Nazi might still has the power to intimidate on other fronts as well -- "The old fear of Germany’s mechanized forces still holds Soviet Russia in check -- and this fear has, it is known, led her to speed up deliveries recently, deliveries that the Nazis need."

GOLFING UNDER GUNFIRE. From the New Republic’s Bandwagon section, quoting a United Press dispatch -- "A golf club near London has posted the following wartime rules: 1. The position of known delayed-action bombs will be marked by red flags placed at reasonably but not guaranteed safe distance. 2. A ball removed by enemy action may be replaced as near as possible to where it lay, or if lost and destroyed, another ball may be dropped not nearer the hole without penalty. 3. Competitors during gunfire or while bombs are falling may take cover without penalty."