MORE GRIM PROPHECIES FOR SPRING. Another frightening prediction of what the British will face when the warm winds blow, this one based in part on General Marshall’s closed-door testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and distilled by Turner Catledge in yesterday’s New York Times –
"The best indications are that the blow will come in early Spring, and that by then Germany will have thirty-one divisions, composed of 1,200 squadrons of bombers and fighters which could keep 18,000 planes in action at one time if necessary. Back of this, it was believed, would be a 100 per cent reserve, making a total strength of some 36,000 planes in immediate combat force and reserves. The information leaves little room to believe, moreover, that Germany will lack enough trained pilots of a sufficient supply of fuel to operate its large air force. Some time ago she had 42,000 trained combat pilots and this figure is thought to have greatly increased since. In the cold statistics of the case, as figured here, Britain’s deficiency in the air, which is reckoned as the all-important arena in the expected battle, will be around 1 to 4 in April or May, the likely time of the expected invasion."
The "mosaic of information" compiled by Mr. Catledge says zero-hour for the invasion will be "unparalleled in world history, with every sort of destructive device sent across the English Channel," including poison gas. No doubt some will dismiss this as more pro-Administration propaganda for lend-lease -- but the seeming unanimity among the best-informed observers that this is coming is pretty sobering. I’m still wary of the timing. Hitler might not wait until "April or May," simply because so many people seem to expect him to.
THE TRAGEDY OF ITALY. The riots in Milan, Turin, and elsewhere northern Italy have been successfully put down, with a lot of help from German troops. But the handwriting is on the wall -- Italy is dying as an independent nation. Barnett Nover wrote an obituary of sorts in his Washington Post column yesterday --
"The Italians are an earthy, practical people who long ago lost whatever delusions of grandeur they may have possessed in the past. Mussolini tried to make them into first century Romans. In the process he destroyed Italy’s freedom, shed the blood of thousands of Italians, wasted the national substance. And now because the Italians suffered his rule, they face the loss of even their independence. The choice that faces Italy today is not a pleasant one. She is being ground between a powerful enemy and a ruthless and merciless ally. To abandon the struggle against Great Britain and Greece would only mean a further loss of the prestige that Italy can no longer regain anyhow and the possible loss of territory which has been far more of a liability than an asset to the kingdom. Yet to abandon the struggle abroad would only mean to invite a struggle at home. Already the German occupation is under way. And there can be no question that Mussolini would not hesitate to use Germans to shoot down his fellow countrymen if he found it necessary to do so to save the shadow of power he once exercised."
It all bodes, writes Mr. Nover, a future even darker for Italy than her present -- "The German legions who...are moving into the Italian peninsula are there only because Hitler has failed to win that victory over Great Britain which loomed so close last June and July. In occupying Italy he will only intensify the unwillingness of Italians to continue fighting. He will not be able to make them fight any harder or any better than they have done. But at least he may save the country from being used as a base of operations against him. Yet, whatever happens, Italy bids fair to become a battlefield. That is the legacy of 18 years of Fascist rule. That is the price Italians are paying for Mussolini."
GOOD NEWS FOR THE DUCE? Writing from Rome in Wednesday’s New York Herald Tribune, Allen Raymond notes Hitler’s intervention in Italy’s military affairs, but casts it in much more positive terms for Mussolini and makes it sound like the war in the south might soon take an abrupt turn --
"New life, vigorous and confident, is flowing into the Axis’s war machine in the Mediterranean zone, and while neither the daily communiques of the high command nor the Italian press gives any hint of it, a mighty counter-offensive against the Greco-British forces in Albania is being carefully prepared....Although the general public of Italy is still gloomy because of the serious reverses and great loss of men and material in North Africa, the Fascist regime has more reason now to be confident that the tide of battle may shortly turn against the British in the Mediterranean region than it had before the recent meeting between Fuehrer Adolf Hitler and Premier Benito Mussolini in Germany."
Sounds like more wishful thinking from Italian officials, given much more prominence in the Herald Tribune than the truth merits. But we’ll see.
ANOTHER WELCOME NOTE OF BIPARTISANSHIP. Thomas W. Lamont, vice chairman of J.P. Morgan and a life-long Republican who fought vigorously against the Third Term, has added his voice to calls for unity, at a speech yesterday to the Merchants Association of New York. From the Associated Press transcription --
"The [presidential] campaign is over. We are in the midst of a world crisis. As a nation we cannot and must not be divided. I am doing everything in my power to help the present Administration and I will continue to do so. And again I urge national unity in support of the President and of plans for material aid to England and for our defense....All Americans loathe war and a vast majority of us hope to avoid it...At the same time, we are not going to keep out of war just because we say we are going to keep out. The issue of war rests not with us, but with Hitler. He makes war when he pleases, how he pleases and against whom he pleases."
Mr. Lamont supports "whatever amendments may be essential" to the lend-lease bill, and it looks like there’s been a bit more progress on that front, too. According to Jack Beall in the New York Herald Tribune, House supporters of the bill appear now to have the votes to approve lend-lease with four amendments -- (1) a time limit of two years on special presidential powers; (2) a prohibition against using any powers granted in the bill to order convoying of British vessels by the U.S. Navy; (3) a requirement that the President report to Congress all operations and transactions under the act, and (4) a requirement that the President consult with the Army Chief of Staff and the Chief of Naval Operations before ordering war materials sent to other nations. Willard Edwards’ story in yesterday’s Chicago Tribune listed the seven isolationist-backed amendments, but these -- including a cap of $2,000,000,000 of goods allowed to be shipped under the bill, and a demand that Britain put up security for aid sent to her -- don’t appear to be going anywhere.
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