Tuesday, January 21, 1941

"DEMOCRACY IS NOT DYING." America’s first-ever third term inaugural address was one of President Roosevelt’s best speeches, a call to arms containing even more hopeful notes than his first address during the dark hours of depression eight years ago. To an audience of 125,000, he said after taking the oath of office yesterday --

"The democratic aspiration is no mere recent phase in human history. It is human history. It permeated the ancient life of early peoples. It blazed anew in the Middle Ages. It was written in Magna Carta....Its vitality was written into our own Mayflower compact, into the Declaration of Independence, into the Constitution of the United States, into the Gettysburg Address...The destiny of America was proclaimed in words of prophecy spoken by our first President in his first inaugural in 1789 -- words almost directed, it would seem, to this year of 1941: ‘The preservation of the sacred fire of liberty and the destiny of the republican model of government are justly considered....deeply...finally, staked on the experiment intrusted to the hands of the American people.’ If we lose that sacred fire -- if we let it be smothered with doubt and fear -- then we shall reject the destiny which Washington strove so valiantly and so triumphantly to establish. The preservation of the spirit and the faith of the nation does, and will, furnish the highest justification for every sacrifice that we may make in the cause of national defense. In the face of great perils never before encountered, our strong purpose is to protect and to perpetuate the integrity of democracy....We do not retreat. We are not content to stand still. As Americans, we go forward, in the service of our country, by the will of God."

THE DICTATORS FACE A QUANDARY. Here is what’s swung me over to the view that Hitler is going to attempt an invasion of Britain very soon, regardless of whether or not the Luftwaffe ever gains superiority over the R.A.F. -- Germany must knock Britain out of the war, before Britain knocks Italy out of the war. (By "knockout", I don’t mean a British march on Rome, but merely the extinguishment of Mussolini’s "empire" and military strength outside of Italian shores.) If Britain can provoke an Italian collapse in Africa and fuel a new Greek breakthrough in Albania, a massive Nazi intervention would be needed to protect the Axis’ south flank and keep the British away from Italy proper, or from other critical German resources such as the Rumanian oilfields. If Italy were to falter quickly enough, it could distract the German military to the point that major new Nazi aggression elsewhere would become exceedingly difficult. And that means that Britain survives and grows in strength, as enormous new shipments of war materials from the U.S. pour in. The prospect of massive American aid, and Italy’s military woes, combine to make a German invasion of Britain a now-or-never proposition.

No doubt the mood at Sunday’s secret conference between Hitler and Mussolini was much grimmer than last time, in light of the dictators' current pickle. The Associated Press cites "Axis sources" as saying the purpose of the conference was for the two men to "put the finishing touches on a new surprise attack," but it’s more likely Mussolini was a spectator, and a supplicant. "Observers agreed generally that Mussolini was eager to learn whether Hitler could promise military support for Italy in Albania and North Africa, and, if so, how much." I’ll bet he wasn’t real happy with the answer.

FIVE POSSIBLE NAZI MOVES THIS YEAR. Hanson W. Baldwin argues in Sunday’s New York Times that Italy, even with her recent wave of defeats, is still performing a useful service to the Axis by engaging a third of Britain’s fleet, eight to twelve divisions of troops and hundreds of planes. And this gives Germany time to launch a "climactic struggle" to win the war in the coming months. The Nazi offensive could consist of one, or more likely more than one, of the following five possibilities --

"(1) Intensified aerial assaults upon Britain, her ports and her shipping, possibly to pave the way for attempted invasion, possibly to attempt to win the war by establishing an effective blockade...An attempted direct invasion of Britain might be successful only if Germany first won local air superiority above Britain, but it might be tried with our without such superiority....(2) Invasion of Ireland. This seems in some ways less likely than direct invasion of Britain. It is initially easier, but in the long run perhaps even harder, since British bases are far closer than German bases, there are considerable British forces in Northern Ireland, and the British Navy could cut the German supply lines....(3) A German move into Spain toward Gibraltar, possibly toward Portugal....However, it would also still further extend the German strength without bringing about a decision....(4) A German move against Greece through Bulgaria, against the Dardanelles toward Turkey...[but] there could be no gain commensurate with the risk...unless Germany also undertook, in conjunction with Italy, a pincers campaign against Suez....(5) German attempts to extend the war to Northwest Africa, perhaps by bringing in Spain, perhaps by coercing French forces into the conflict....While increasing Britain’s difficulties, it probably would not be decisive."

As rife with difficulties as the choices facing Hitler are, Mr. Baldwin notes the Fuehrer retains one major advantage -- "Germany knows, and Britain knows, that Britain’s strength will not permit launching a decisive offensive in the decisive theatre this year. Germany knows, and Britain knows, that this year -- probably this Spring and this Summer, before the wheels of American industrial production are turning at their fullest -- Germany may be at her peak strength, ready for an attempt to end the war."

NO ROSES FROM THE HERALD TRIBUNE. In a spirit of bipartisan good-will to President Roosevelt upon his third inauguration, the Washington Post ran a full-page house advertisement Monday containing salutary quotations, especially solicited for the occasion, from the opinion columnists who appear in the Post's pages -- Dorothy Thompson, Mark Sullivan, Barnet Nover, Walter Lippmann, Westbrook Pegler, and others. But no such bouquets from the New York Herald Tribune, which, though consistently interventionist in its beliefs (even to the point of calling for a declaration of war on Germany), commemorated Inauguration Day with a blistering editorial on the President’s judgement in asking Congress for emergency powers --

"As [the President] stands up to take the oath of office for this term without a precedent in the country’s history, what can be said of his post-election actions? Nothing, it must be agreed, that tends remotely to justify the breaking of the third-term tradition....In his first important approach to the new Congress, Mr. Roosevelt made the capital error of asking for a grant of power unlimited as to period and excessive in its scope. This newspaper begrudges no power to the Executive which the present crisis makes desirable. It urges a spirit of co-operation with the Republicans in Congress lest, in removing the excesses from the bill, the power of swift action in an emergency be compromised. But here again the President has shown no slightest change of heart, no first sign that he respected either the prerogative of Congress or the will of the people. The revolt in both houses -- and throughout the nation -- is a healthy and hopeful sign. It is a clear hint that the voters, in ignoring the third term tradition, were by no means resolved to destroy either the tradition or the democratic spirit which it embodied. We hope that the revolt continues until the bill has been reduced to proper proportions. If only the President could learn from his blunder a new respect for the American way of governing! As he takes his oath today may he ponder upon the tradition which he is breaking and the great democratic faith which created it and which still, praise be, lives in the hearts of Americans."

CAN’T BE TOO CAREFUL NOWADAYS. From the New Republic’s Bandwagon section, quoting a news item in the Cincinnati Times-Star -- "Police were summoned late Saturday to the home of Harold C. Eustis, vice-president of the H. and S. Pogue Company, 6 Elmhurst Place, when Mrs. Eustis discovered a dog playing in her front yard with what appeared to be a bomb....The dog was released after questioning."