BULGARIA JOINS THE AXIS. The lead sentence in the Washington Post’s lead story yesterday summed things up with dramatic simplicity -- "The long-brewing Balkan crisis has apparently come to a head." Specifically, according to the Associated Press, the Bulgarian government has agreed to sign the Axis Tripartite Pact, making Bulgaria a formal German ally and automatically inviting German troops to march into the country. And march they have, entering the capital of Sofia last night. No doubt, no question about it now. (Another A.P. story notes that Bulgaria is "the eleventh sovereign state [Germany] has overrun since 1938."). Bulgarian Premier Philoff went to Vienna to make everything official in a seven-minute ceremony, making his country the seventh member of the Axis, along with Germany, Italy, Japan, Hungary, Rumania, and the "protectorate" of Slovakia. No doubt a British declaration of war on Bulgaria will soon follow.
There’s also no doubt Hitler is intent on protecting his Balkan flank from assault by British troops, and toward that end the Nazis have reportedly issued Greece an ultimatum – make peace now with Italy, or "suffer the consequences" two weeks from now. The United Press says the Greeks have been warned this is their "last chance" to accept peace terms, or Nazi troops will drive south from Bulgaria. There’s absolutely nothing surprising about this, but it sets new standards in Nazi gall -- Greece is at war because she was invaded by Mussolini’s forces, for goodness sake. She surely would have been quite happy to stay neutral, if the Fascists had left her alone. A war with Germany would be much tougher than anything the Greeks have faced so far, but I hope they stand their ground. Maybe, with British help on the sea and in the air, Greece’s military can once again defy outsiders’ expectations.
WHY IS RUSSIA SILENT? So far, no comment from Moscow about the German moves in Bulgaria, despite the high interest one would think the Russian government would have in a events taking place so close to her border. Professor Harold Laski’s syndicated column yesterday did a good job of putting forth some possible reasons for this --
"What is the explanation for the Soviet silence? In this country three predominant explanations are offered. One school, mainly Tory imperialists in complexion, though by no means wholly so, argues that the Soviet Union is bound to the function of a mere observer by secret clauses in the Russo-German pact. On this view, she is reconciled to the idea of a German victory in belief that the deeper enemy is Britain, behind which she sees the immense resources of America. With them, she thinks, there is no ultimate reconciliation possible....The second school of thought, among which many Socialists may be found, believes Stalin is anxious for a long drawn out war of exhaustion. This would, in his judgment, mean the undermining of the Hitler regime and the British Empire from within; there would be revolutionary uprisings throughout Europe due to the agonies of the people, and he would, as leader of the Soviet Union, then emerge as the leader of the revolutionary forces in Europe....The third school of thought takes a much simpler view of Stalin’s motives and I think its simplicity is founded on fact. Stalin is afraid of Hitler. He has seen the immensity of his victories. He is not persuaded that Hitler can be beaten. He knows of the blow Hitler could deal to the Ukraine were he to move in an anti-Nazi direction. He could count, no doubt, on a long defensive war. But he might well invite attack by Japan. He would have to desist from further aid to China and thereby add gravely to the powers of Japanese aggression."
Personally, I think the first explanation -- that Russia is bound by secret agreement with Germany not to react to the Bulgarian crisis -- sounds at least as likely a the last one, if not more so. Why? Simply because we’ve already seen it happen in regards to Poland. One could make a good case that Stalin’s pact with Hitler eighteen months ago to carve up Poland was short-sighted on the part of the Russians, since it led to the positioning of German armies right on Russia’s doorstep. Why isn’t it plausible that Stalin would cut a similar deal now, despite the fact that, as Professor Laski says, it "would bring the rich oil-bearing region of the Caucasus within striking distance of German arms"? It could well be that the Russians are winking of Germany’s march into Bulgaria in exchange for, say, Russia having a free hand in Turkey.
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